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Studying Global Climate Change Using Natural Experiments of the Past...

Is the earth getting hotter? Are the severe storms being experienced worldwide due to global warming? Such topics have scientists and politicians debating man’s impact on the environment.

Feng Sheng Hu, assistant professor of Plant Biology, is also very interested in the effects of global climate change on ecosystems and biogeochemical processes—but over a geological time scale. "There is no doubt that the climate has changed. But to understand the effect of those changes, I study the ‘natural experiments’ of the past that are archived in geological deposits, such as lake sediments," says Hu.

The wide variety of proxy environmental records in these deposits have major advantages over other eco-logical data. "These records provide a long holistic perspective into ecosystem states and biogeochemical processes that do not exist today, but may be analogs of what may happen in the future."

Hu’s laboratory uses such proxy indicators as pollen, stable isotopes, and elemental chemical composition of sediments to address questions of biotic response to climate change at various spatial and temporal scales.

They are also developing a new area of study, molecular paleoecology. They are using molecular genetics techniques to help identify species represented by the pollen grains found in sediments. "The pollen grains of various spruce species, for example, visually look the same. Using genetic markers will allow us to more accurately determine species and ecosystem composition."

Hu and other scientists have found that climate can shift abruptly. "About 11,000 years ago, there was a major warming event of about 8 degrees Celcius in a several decade time frame. This event is well documented in the north Atlantic, and was probably driven by changes in ocean circulation patterns. I am investigating the effects of this abrupt change in the North Pacific region."

They have also recently reported in a Nature article that there were sudden cooling events within the last 10,000 years. Hu and colleagues from the University of Minnesota studied sediments from Deep Lake in northern Minnesota and previously published data on ice cores from near the summit of the Greenland ice sheet. They looked at the thickness of sediment layers in the lake bottom, which accumulate seasonally and reflect the amount of dust, organic material, and other debris settling in the lake over time.

They found that the northern Great Plains experienced a prolonged cooling between 8,900 and 8,300 years ago, apparently caused by the collapse of a huge ice dome, a remnant of the last ice age, in what is now Hudson Bay. With this mile-high dome of ice no longer blocking the way, polar air flowed into the northern plains. Warmer air masses from the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico no longer dominated the weather patterns, and snow accounted for a greater proportion of the total precipitation.

Even without man’s influence, climate can shift abruptly, over a period of only about 50 years, resulting in long-term environmental effects. "Understanding the naturally occurring climate variations of the past will help give us a framework against which human effects can be assessed."

For some Americans, the "dust-bowl" days of the 1930s are very bad memories of drought, crop failure, and hardship. But was this an unusual event, or was it just part of the natural climate cycle? If it is part of the natural cycle, what events signal the approach of the next drought, and can those signals be overridden by other factors, such as human-induced climatic warming? Hu’s laboratory is conducting climate cycle studies to address such questions.

To begin to understand whether the 20th century has been a particularly warm one, Hu is conducting experiments in Alaska. Such high-altitude regions are projected to be highly susceptible to global warming, and there is evidence for warming in the last several decades in Alaska. "My data show that there has been a warming trend during the last 150 years, but that increase may be within the range of natural variation in the past 2,000 years."

Answering questions of global climate change within ecological contexts is not an easy process. "The earth is a complex system affected by numerous factors. You really need to have an understanding of all of those factors to be able to predict future change."

To help understand mechanisms of ecosystem response, Hu is studying one of the National Science Foundation’s Long-Term Ecological Research sites in northern Alaska. This site is particularly intriguing. There is one landscape study area approximately 500,000 years old, which was not glaciated during the late Quaternary, immediately adjacent to a landscape area that was exposed by the retreat of the last glacier and is only about 15,000 years old.

The "old" landscape has been subject to extensive weathering, so there is a finer substrate texture, lower nutrient availability, and more extensive cover of tussock plant communities. Soils rich in organic carbon are confined almost entirely to the "old" landscape.

"We know these two areas have been subject to the same climatic events. By studying them, we can begin to understand the interactions between climate and landscape factors in determining carbon cycling and ecosystem states." The assessment of these complex interactions among climatic change, landscape factors, and carbon cycling is funded by the National Science Foundation.

"Although I started out as a botanist, I have always been very interested in the interfaces between different disciplines—atmospheric sciences, chemistry, geology, and biology."

Hu’s unique blend of disciplines and insight has recently been recognized by The David and Lucile Packard Foundation. They have awarded him one of 24 Fellowships for Science and Engineering in 2000. These 5-year fellowships, providing $125,000 each year, are designed to allow the nation’s most promising young professors to pursue their innovative research programs with few funding restrictions and limited paperwork requirements. Only 50 universities in the US are asked by the Packard Foundation to submit nominations.

Hu earned his BS in biology from Xiamen University in 1983, his MS in botany from the University of Maine in 1990, and in 1994 his PhD in ecosystem science and conservation from the University of Washington. Hu was a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Minnesota in the NSF Research Training Group on Paleorecords of Global Change. He came to the University of Illinois in 1998.

 

 

Top left: Annually laminated sediments (varves) are among the best archives of environmental changes, because they provide exceptionally high-quality chronometers. In the core sample above, each couplet of a light layer and a dark layer represents sediment deposition of one year, much like annual growth rings on trees. The light layer is primarily calcite precipitate through photosynthesis in the summer, and the dark layer includes clastic and organic debris deposited in other seasons. Hu’s laboratory analyzes the varved sediments using a suite of geochemical, sedimentological, and biological proxies, including varve thickness, organic and inorganic carbon, detrital minerals, mineralogical composition, grain size, oxygen and carbon isotopes of carbonates and ostracode shells, trace-element composition of ostracode shells, and pollen.
Top right: collecting sediment samples from the float of an amphibious airplane.
Bottom right: Tungak Lake, Alaska, showing the campsite.

School of Integrative Biology

School of Molecular & Cellular Biology

University of Illinois

This newsletter is published by the School of Integrative Biology and the School of Molecular and Cellular Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Editor: Jana Waite.  Send comments and suggestions to j-waite@life.uiuc.edu

Updated 12/07/00