| |
Wageningen Agricultural University
Sub-department of Theoretical Production Ecology
Theme 2: Crop Growth and Development
Model evaluation of experimental variability to improve predictability of
crop yields under climate change (MODEXCROP).
Researcher(s):J.
Wolf, J. Goudriaan
Aim
- The yield response of crops to future global climatic conditions is still hard to
predict. For example, the yield response of wheat to a doubling of the ambient atmospheric
CO2 concentration varied in field experiments between no increase
of yield to almost a doubling of the yield. The aim of this project is to improve the
understanding of causes of variability in crop yields in relation to expected global
climatic changes.
- In the project special attention will be given to the yield response of wheat. Existing
data sets on wheat productivity under ambient and future CO2
conditions will be collected, and analysed using detailed mechanistic crop growth models (SUCROS,
AFRCWHEAT, WIMOVAC). Single factors, such as temperature and nutrient or water
availability, will be tested on their effect on the CO2 response
factor. If required, algorithms will be added to the models. Model performances will be
compared.
Cooperation
- KVL-Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University, Dept of Agricultural Sciences (DK)
University of Essex, Dept of Biological and Chemical Sciences (UK), AB-DLO (NL), IACR-Rothamsted (UK), IATA-CNR-Florence
(IT), INRA-Clermont Ferrand (F), Justus Liebig University (DL), and USDA-ARS-Phoenix
(USA).
Progress
- The project started in July 1996. The collection and analysis of experimental data sets
is in progress. Data from the FACE experiments in Arizona are analysed. Simulations with
the various crop growth models for the specific FACE conditions were made. Experimental
data of FACE show that the above-ground wheat biomass response to elevated CO2 (370 versus 550 ppm) is circa 20% at anthesis and 10% at maturity under
conditions of potential production situations. The models simulated comparable biomass
responses for potential production situations when observed phenology and leaf area
indices were fitted. When the leaf area indices were not fitted, the models tended to
overestimate the biomass response to elevated CO2. In the coming
year more data sets will be analysed and more simulations will be made.
Publications
 | C. Kempenaar, 1997. Mid-term report on state of the art of MODEXCROP. Wageningen
Agricultural University, Dept. of Theoretical Production Ecology, Wageningen, 12 pp. |
Project: EU-ENVIRONMENT Programme 1995-1997.
|
