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Report DiscussionResults obtained from testing the model against the new data set from the ISA Bari partners are encouraging. The test confirms the new model, WINSORG, to have the potential to predict total above ground and stem dry matter production for sites other than those used for model construction. This result supports the validity of incorporating established empirical algorithms with mechanistic models, to produce models that have a greater potential for producing predictive simulations for conditions under which dry matter production cannot yet be measured. A limitation of the model was the apparent inaccuracy of predicting leaf development, particularly during the early stages of growth. However, as the aims of this study are to investigate sorghum as a biomass crop, where the economic yield consists of the stems and total above ground biomass, and considering stems make up the largest component of biomass in a sorghum crop, perhaps the lack of accuracy in the prediction of leaf dry matter development early on the growing season is not so critical at this stage of model development. Studies over the next research period include: a) The incorporation of the crop phenological stages of sorghum and associated elapsed thermal times into WIMOVAC. b) Determination of algorithms for low temperature stress effects and high temperature enhancement of dry matter production. c) Inclusion of water-stress effects in the new model. d) Model testing against new experimental data. |
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